Stock Performance Around Recessions

Stock Performance Before, During & After Recessions


A few weeks ago I urged readers to get used to the fact that recessions are a fact of life that they need to get used to every 4-10 years or so. I shared the following table with each recession since the late-1920s:

Recessions HistoricalThe next logical step from here is the see how stocks performed in and around these past recessions. I only have monthly S&P 500 returns going back to the mid-1950s, but that was good enough to show the total returns leading up to, during and after each of the past nine recessions:

recession perf 


You can  the complete article here


Stock Market Predictions From a Broken Record

The following was originally posted by my friend Rick Kahler.  I share his sentiments exactly.  I hope you enjoy it……


For investors, happy days have been here so long that it’s beginning to seem surreal. The United States stock market is at all-time highs; we have low unemployment rates and solid company profits. The big question is, “What will happen in the near future?”

It’s a question that no reporter has asked me for years. The reason is simple. When it comes to predictions for the US stock market, I am a boring, broken record. There is nothing exciting, stupendous, or scintillating in my predictions. They are always the same.

If a reporter did interview me, here’s how the conversation might go:

Q: What are your predictions for the US stock market this year?

A: If there are more buyers than sellers it will go up. If there are more sellers than buyers, it will go down.

Read the complete article here

The More Things Change….

I had an opportunity to watch Dr. Jeremy Siegel speak yesterday – right after a panel of futurists who talked all about the wild possibilities (technologically and politically) for the future.

Siegel pointed out that the stock market has returned, over long periods of time, about 6.8 % REAL RETURN consistently since 1802 – over 200 years.  His implication was that the market would continue to do this – in spite of the rapidly changing world.

As I listened, I realized that the world has changed a lot since 1802 and that we and the markets have adapted to the change that we have seen.  Dr. Siegel expects that the markets will adapt to accommodate the rapidly changing world of the future.  I agree. As long as you don’t try to pick the winners, your portfolio will continue to grow and adapt.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

There always has been change and always will be.

It’s not about the Money

As a financial planner, I have always maintained that for most clients – and especially for my favorite clients – it is not about the money.

It’s about helping them understand what they have accomplished and feel good about it. Then it’s about helping them figure out how they want to use what they have accomplished to make lives better – theirs, the people they care about or their community.  I find that I always have to dig deeper to find out what is really, really important to my clients.

That is the key to really helping people.

The Songs of our Ancestors

“The songs of our ancestors are also the songs of our children”

― Philip Carr-Gomm

You have a responsibility – a great responsibility.  The songs of our ancestors ARE also the songs of our children.  The song you are singing / living came from your ancestors.

Your children and grandchildren will sing the songs you teach them.  Be careful what you sing.  Whatever you sing – sing it with great intention.

Pay attention to the song you are singing.  If you love the song you got from your ancestors – great!  Pass it on.  With zest and gusto.

If you don’t love it, write a new one!  Do it with love, energy and abandon!

Sing the song you came to sing!  And send me a recording.


Your Mission on Earth

In his 1977 book “Illusions”, Richard Bach writes “Here is the test to find whether your mission on earth is finished. If you’re alive, it isn’t.”

He points out that each of us is here for a reason – with a mission – and that it is sometimes difficult to determine what that mission, or purpose, is.

Our first mission then is to figure out what that mission is.  Pay attention to what moves you, to what inspires you, to what brings tears to your eyes and warmth to your heart.

Keep moving forward with determination and you will find the reason you are here.

You WILL Leave a Legacy

I ask a lot of people what they want their legacy to be.  The most common answers I get are:

– I don’t have enough money to leave a legacy.

– I am too unimportant to leave an impact.

To those people, I say … “You WILL leave a legacy.  The only question is .. Whether you will leave it to fate or whether you will define the legacy you want to leave.”

Each of us will leave a legacy.  Every action we take, every interaction we have and every decision we make has an impact on the world.  It may be major or it may be minor.  The cumulative impact of all of those actions and decisions has a larger impact.

Do you want to stand by and see what they cumulative effect is?  Or do you want to define the impact that you will have?  I’m in favor of the latter.  I think we should each think about the impact we want to have on the world – and work to make it happen.