Consuelo Mack recently interviewed Robert Arnott, Founder and Chairman, Research Affiliates. Arnott has been a pioneer in the fundamental indexing movement. He also manages PIMCO’s All Asset All Authority Fund.
Arnott feels we are in a recession already and the economy crested in June. He also thinks U. S. stocks are in a bear market and the next leg is likely down.
Arnott said the deficit is 10% of GDP which is debt financed consumption and not prosperity. He said, adjusted for debt financed spending, we are “bottom bouncing” barely above the 2009 depressed levels of GDP.
Arnott is still cautious on U. S. equities, but not all of them. He said value stocks are not so expensive. He made a provocative long/short suggestion to buy Bank of America (BOA) and short Apple (AAPL). Arnott doesn’t think it’s likely AAPL will grow enough to justify being the largest capitalization stock in the world.