This article, By Jason Kephart, reinforces a fact that DFA and others have been talking about for years, and which is a key aspect of my investment philosophy: the hot fund this year will probably NOT be the hot fund next year – and the hot manager this year will probably NOT be the HOT manager next year. The best strategy is to use low-cost mutual funds and tilt your asset allocation toward asset classes that have performed well over time.
I would love to hear your comments.
S&P Dow Jones Indexes are playing the Grinch for this year’s top-performing mutual funds. In its newly released Persistence Scorecard, the index company reports that the odds of the top-performing funds repeating that success are low at best and only get worse the longer the time frame. The bottom line: If you were thinking about buying new funds that have done well lately, you may want to think again.
Only 7% of the 692 domestic mutual funds that ranked in the top quartile of returns in September 2011 managed to continue to rank in the top quartile through September 2013, according to the report. Only 21.24% managed to stay in the top quartile over two straight years.